As a seasoned researcher with over a decade of experience in the cryptocurrency market, I have witnessed numerous ups and downs, bull runs, and bear markets. The recent drop in the total crypto market cap by around 7 percent in the past 24 hours has brought back memories of previous market corrections.
In the last day, the overall value of all cryptocurrencies decreased by approximately 7%, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) leading the decline. This brought the total market cap to around $2.16 trillion on August 28, during the mid-European trading session. At that moment, Bitcoin was down more than 6% in the last 24 hours, trading at roughly $58,820.
In simpler terms, Ethereum was the leading cryptocurrency in the alternative coin market, displaying a downward trend, having dropped approximately 9% over the last day, and trading around $2,450 on Wednesday.
In my experience as a crypto investor, over $323 million was wiped out from the leveraged crypto market, with approximately $288 million of that being tied to long traders.
Historical Data Signals to Potential Bearish September for Bitcoin Price
Over 115 days have passed since the fourth Bitcoin halving, but the anticipated parabolic surge in the cryptocurrency bull market hasn’t occurred yet. Following a volatile period over the last five months, analysts predict that Bitcoin’s price trend will persist throughout September.
Additionally, an examination of historical data reveals that Bitcoin’s performance over the last 10 Septembers has been mainly bearish, with just three instances where it showed a bullish trend.
September has historically been the worst-performing month for Bitcoin.
In the past 10 years, we’ve seen a positive return just 3 times.
Will it be the same this time, or is this time any different?
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) August 27, 2024
Despite Jerome Powell’s recently dovish comments about the U.S. economy, many cryptocurrency traders are optimistic that the fourth quarter could bring a bullish turnaround, given the changed economic outlook.
Whales Accelerate Profit-Taking
In recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin has had difficulty surpassing the significant resistance/support level approximately at $66,000, leading to a growing number of whales adopting a bearish stance. For example, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) experienced its greatest outflows totaling over $101 million on Tuesday. Currently, ARKB manages approximately $2.88 billion in assets.
As a crypto investor, I noticed that not only is Grayscale’s GBTC continuing to hemorrhage, but US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs also saw a significant outflow of approximately $127 million in cash on Tuesday.
Over the last six months, there’s been a noticeable decrease in the rate of money flowing into Bitcoin. This slowdown aligns with reduced interest in Bitcoin, which is also reflected in increased selling by short-term holders. In fact, these short-term holders have recently deposited approximately 33K units of Bitcoin.
The rate at which money is flowing into Bitcoin as investment capital has begun to decrease, suggesting an equilibrium between investors who are realizing gains and those who are experiencing losses.
Typically, such periods of low activity precede significant spikes in volatility.
h/t @glassnode
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) August 28, 2024
Midterm Targets
The price of Bitcoin might keep fluctuating for a while in the upcoming months, but it’s predicted to follow a steep upward trend starting Q4 this year and through 2025. Meanwhile, the altcoin market is likely to struggle against Bitcoin, particularly during the US election season when increased volatility is expected.
Matrixport Alert: Bitcoin Plunges Dramatically Today – Aug 28, Triggering Significant Liquidations; Key Level at $59K for Traders to Watch 🚨. Could this be a prelude to a larger shift? 👀 Stay tuned with Matrixport for updates on #CryptoMarket trends, #CryptoFinance, and more!
— Matrixport Official English (the only official X) (@Matrixport_EN) August 28, 2024
In simpler terms, if Bitcoin continues to close its daily prices below $59k over the short term, we might expect its value to drop back down towards $55k from a technical perspective.
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2024-08-28 11:58