As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience navigating volatile markets, I find myself cautiously bearish on Ethereum (ETH) at this juncture. The recent crossing of the crucial resistance level at around $2,843 and the subsequent 4% decline over the past 24 hours are not signs that should be ignored.
It appears that Ethereum (ETH) may be headed for a possible drop, as it has surpassed a significant resistance point at approximately $2,843. At present, Ethereum is being traded at $2,622, representing a 4% decrease over the last day. The bearish outlook is becoming more pronounced, with both technical analysis and on-chain data pointing towards this trend.
Resistance Level and Technical Indicators
As an analyst, I’m observing that Ethereum’s current price movement is approaching a crucial 50% retracement point at approximately $2,843. This level was determined from the peak of $3,562 achieved on July 22 and the trough of $2,124 seen on August 5. Notably, this price point aligns with a significant daily resistance at around $2,927. If Ethereum fails to break through this resistance, it may encounter a substantial drop, possibly decreasing by approximately 20% to reach the weekly support level of $2,118.
Photo: TradingView
It appears that technical indicators are pointing towards a downward trend in the market. Specifically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) are situated below their neutral thresholds, suggesting a possible decline. Furthermore, Ethereum’s Exchange Flow Balance has seen a substantial rise lately. This indicator, which gauges the net flow of Ether into and out of exchanges, has jumped from -62,018 to 20,707 between Tuesday and Wednesday. The surge suggests increased selling activity among investors, potentially signaling bearish sentiments in the market.
Impact of Recent Market Movements
More recent events, such as actions by Ethereum’s founder and key market participants, are fueling pessimistic expectations. According to Lookonchain data, Vitalik Buterin transferred approximately $534,000 worth of ETH to the Kraken exchange, which might escalate selling pressure and potentially worsen Ethereum’s short-term prospects.
vitalik.eth(@VitalikButerin) deposited 200 $ETH($534K) to #Kraken 8 hours ago.
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) August 15, 2024
Furthermore, it’s worth noting that Jump Trading, a prominent figure in the crypto trading market, has restarted selling large quantities of Ether (ETH). Specifically, on Wednesday, they sold over 17,000 ETH, which is equivalent to around $46.44 million. This action comes after a string of ETH sales by Jump Trading since July, a period that has seen Ethereum experience a significant decrease in value. For example, from July 24 to August 5, the value of Ethereum fell by more than 33%, decreasing from $3,400 to $2,200.
Persistent selling of ETH by Jump Trading has sparked worries about a possible massive sell-off. At first, these sales didn’t significantly affect Ethereum’s value, but they have been linked to its recent drop to around $2,620. Furthermore, the ongoing examination of Jump Trading by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) might influence market opinion, intensifying the uncertainty.
Development Activity and Market Sentiment
A troubling aspect is the decreasing pace of development within Ethereum. This indicator, tracking GitHub events related to the project, has been on a downward trend. Specifically, it dropped from 265 events on Wednesday to 257 on Thursday. The continuous dip in this metric may indicate less innovation and involvement with the Ethereum blockchain, potentially leading to a more pessimistic outlook among investors.
Although there are signs pointing downward, Ethereum may yet change its course for the better. If the price successfully surpasses the $3,396 mark (reached on July 29), it could be a sign of an impending uptrend and might lead us to revisit the July 22 peak at $3,562.
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2024-08-15 12:17