Kamala Harris Surpasses Donald Trump in Presidential Odds on Polymarket

As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade of experience under my belt, I find myself intrigued by the recent political shifts and their potential impact on the digital asset market. Having navigated through numerous market cycles and seen the rise and fall of various cryptocurrencies, I’ve learned to keep an open mind and adapt quickly to changing circumstances.


As a crypto investor, I find myself closely watching the U.S. presidential race, which is proving to be quite unpredictable. The ongoing competition between candidates has me on the edge of my seat, as it’s becoming increasingly challenging to foresee who will ultimately emerge victorious.

Based on data from Polymarket, a prediction market platform that operates without central control, Harris now has a higher probability of winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election compared to Trump. Over the weekend, her likelihood of becoming president increased to approximately 52%, while Trump’s chances dropped to 46%. This marks a significant decrease from his robust 70% chance in mid-July.

In the ongoing Senate contest, it appears that Republicans hold a strong advantage, with an estimated probability of 70% for them to emerge victorious. Conversely, the Democrats find themselves in a less favorable position, currently predicted to win only 30% of the time.

Crypto in the Spotlight

2024 Election Discussions Encompass Cryptocurrencies Intensely, as Both Harris and Trump Present Distinct Viewpoints on the Topic.

Harris’s team is now making contact with influential figures within the cryptocurrency field, implying a possible change in direction for her campaign’s priorities. Being a native of California and having strong connections within the technology industry due to her time as Attorney General, Harris’s pro-business image might be appealing to the crypto community.

Nevertheless, Harris hasn’t escaped criticism. In July, David Bailey, the CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, publicly claimed that Harris had privately referred to Bitcoin as “money for criminals.”

Conversely, Trump, a firm advocate of Bitcoin, has consistently voiced his faith in the cryptocurrency’s prospects. In a recent interview, Trump criticized the U.S. government for disposing of its digital currency holdings, suggesting instead that the nation should be amassing its crypto reserves. He emphasized the importance of the U.S. remaining competitive in the global cryptocurrency marketplace.

Upcoming Highly Anticipated Events

It’s worth mentioning that on Wednesday, the grassroots network Crypto4Harris is organizing a town hall meeting to back Harris. Notable figures in the cryptocurrency sphere, including billionaire investor Mark Cuban, will be present at this event. The main objective of this gathering is to bolster support for Harris and advocate for a fair and equitable policy.

As an analyst, I’m excited to share that Elon Musk has disclosed his plans to facilitate a live chat with Donald Trump at 8:00 p.m. ET on Monday. Prior to this interactive session, Musk’s team is performing some system scaling tests in preparation. The crypto community eagerly awaits this event, with numerous speculations suggesting it could potentially create a stir and “test the limits of the internet”.

More recently, Elon Musk has openly expressed his support for Donald Trump, publicly backing the ex-president on various occasions. Notably, Stuart Alderoty, the Chief Legal Officer of Ripple, as well as the Winklevoss twins – co-founders of Gemini, have also shown their allegiance to Trump.

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2024-08-12 13:28