Bitcoin Price Rally to $100K Not Coming in 2024, Here’s Why

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As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in global financial markets, I’ve learned to navigate through the complexities and unpredictabilities that come with investing. The current state of Bitcoin is no exception, and it presents an intriguing puzzle for me.

As the US Federal Reserve meeting approaches on July 31st, Bitcoin‘s price has demonstrated some fluctuation, briefly touching the significant support level of around $65,500 on two occasions within the past day. Numerous traders are optimistic that Bitcoin could reach new record highs post-September, due to anticipation of a potential interest rate reduction.

On the X platform, an anonymous Bitcoin trader known as Rekt Capital shared an opinion: Despite not surpassing the price range between $65,000 and $70,000 for Bitcoin, a breakout within this timeframe (approximately 100 days after the Bitcoin halving) seemed improbable.

As a seasoned cryptocurrency investor with years of experience under my belt, I have witnessed numerous market fluctuations and trends. This week’s BTC blockchain network halving event was another significant milestone in the ever-evolving crypto landscape. While some traders are optimistic about the price reaching $100K before 2024 ends, my personal outlook leans towards a more realistic timeline. Based on my analysis and past observations, I believe that it is more likely for the BTC price to surpass $100K in early 2025 rather than within the remaining months of 2024. It’s essential to stay informed and adaptable in this fast-paced market, as the future of cryptocurrency remains uncertain but full of potential.

“Regarding the larger Bitcoin graph, it appears promising to me. While reaching six digits this year may be too soon, I’m quite optimistic that we’ll witness such values sometime around 2025,” he expressed.

For the immediate future, Daan Crypto Trades is concentrating on the $70,000 to $74,000 zone, acknowledging that this price level has been rejected multiple times in recent months. He further speculates that a significant surge upward will occur once Bitcoin manages to surpass this price range.

US Fed Meeting and Options Expiry on Radar

Earlier today, the Bank of Japan declared an increase in interest rates, raising it to 0.25%. This decision caused fluctuations in various types of assets like cryptocurrencies, stocks, and the Japanese yen.

Market participants eagerly anticipate Jerome Powell’s remarks following the Federal Reserve meeting, as they seek insight into how the Fed plans to address inflation moving forward. With minimal probability of a rate reduction during today’s gathering, experts predict that a 25 basis point cut might transpire at the September meeting instead.

As an analyst, I’ve noted a significant negative gamma between $65,000 and $70,000 in the Bitcoin market, which BioFin Academy has highlighted. This negative gamma is primarily caused by the upcoming expiration of Bitcoin options on August 2. Consequently, as we near these expirations, I anticipate an increase in market volatility due to potential price fluctuations.

2. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches and with a general cautiousness among investors, the immediate outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) remains bearish. The increase in the butterfly index suggests that investors are worried about recent risks. Importantly, the substantial fluctuations in BTC prices…
— BloFin Academy (@BloFin_Academy) July 30, 2024

Conversely, data from CryptoQuant suggests some constructive on-chain activity for Bitcoin. In the last few days, we’ve seen an uptick in Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges, even as Bitcoin has been going through a period of volatility since February. This surge in Bitcoin withdrawals might be a positive signal pointing towards a potential price rise.

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2024-07-31 12:40