As a researcher with experience in the cryptocurrency market, I find Jacob Canfield’s analysis intriguing and well-supported by historical data. Bitcoin’s price behavior has shown consistent patterns of retesting yearly open levels, which could indicate potential support or resistance zones. The recent downward trend in Bitcoin’s price since its mid-March high may suggest that we are approaching a significant support level, potentially the 2024 opening price or the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a researcher, I’ve observed that the Bitcoin price has experienced a significant decrease of over 22% from its mid-March peak at around $73,000. Presently, BTC hovers above $57,000 after a recent price drop. However, based on Jacob Canfield’s trading insights as a mentor at Trading Mastery, there might be further downside in store for Bitcoin. According to Canfield’s latest analysis, the potential decline could extend to levels last seen at the start of this year.
Why Bitcoin Price Could Crash Another 33%
According to Canfield’s analysis on TradingView, Bitcoin’s historical pricing trends show a pattern of retesting the annual opening levels. He emphasizes that these retests can signal either bearish or bullish market trends but are a recurring characteristic in Bitcoin’s market behavior since 2017. Notably, with the exception of 2023 and 2024, every year’s opening price has been revisited within the same year.
I’ve noticed an intriguing pattern in Bitcoin’s price action since 2017. With a few exceptions, the opening price of each year has been tested again throughout the year. This was particularly evident during significant market events such as the 2018 bearish retest prior to the COVID-19 pandemic crash and the 2019 opening at $3,850 being revisited during the subsequent year’s Covid Crash.
In the initial quarter of 2020, the prices for both the 2020 and 2021 annual opens were revisited. The price marking the lowest point before a substantial surge to $69,000, just preceding FTX’s collapse, was the opening price in 2021. Canfield noted that the opening price for 2022 underwent a bearish retest, reminiscent of the one experienced in 2018 before the lows at approximately $16,500. Similar to how the retest of the 2021 annual open provided us with our bottom, this occurrence served as our local peak.
As a crypto investor, I’m pondering over the prospective bottom for Bitcoin in the upcoming months. Here’s where it gets intriguing. The 2023 and 2024 yearly open prices have not been revisited as of now. A crucial question arises: Will we establish a bottom at the 2024 yearly open before reaching new all-time highs or will we plunge down to the 2023 yearly open, which is at $16,500, much like what occurred in 2019?
Crucial Indicators To Watch
The answer may lie in several technical indicators that Canfield considers pivotal. First, Canfield mentions the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This indicator aligns closely with the projected yearly open for 2024, suggesting a higher likelihood of finding support in the $38,000 to $42,000 range. Notably, a price crash this low would mean another -33% for BTC holders.
The second significant sign is the 200-week moving average (MA) ribbon, which is approaching the 2024 opening price. This convergence suggests that this level could function as a robust support area. Canfield hypothesizes that we might see a higher likelihood of forming a bottom in this vicinity, with the 2023 annual open potentially playing a role similar to the 2017 annual open and never being revisited again.
Despite a pessimistic perspective, Canfield’s assessment provides possibilities for different outcomes, focusing on Bitcoin’s market patterns that repeat over time and the significance of past occurrences in projecting upcoming tendencies. In summary, he suggests a probable price level for a potential local minimum based on historical data, encouraging further exploration and debate among the audience.
At press time, BTC traded at $57,479.
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2024-07-09 17:11