As an experienced financial analyst, I have closely monitored the Bitcoin market and its trends for several years. Based on the current market conditions and recent developments, it appears that the Bitcoin cycle top may not yet have been achieved. While veteran trader Peter Brandt suggests that Bitcoin has already reached its cycle top of slightly above $70,000 with a 25% chance, other analysts such as Giovanni Santostasi predict a significant rally beyond $100,000 in the coming months.
Starting the last week of April, Bitcoin (BTC) began with a downturn after ending the previous four weeks with corrections. The major cryptocurrency is nearing the end of its first month of bearish performance since August 2023. As we approach the final hours before May 2024, Bitcoin’s price is expected to remain volatile.
An increasing number of cryptocurrency traders are adopting a cautious approach before major US news events that could impact the market.
This coming Wednesday, the Federal Reserve of the United States is set to unveil long-anticipated information regarding interest rates and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statement.
The volatile cryptocurrency market is predicted to show greater price swings in response to upcoming US inflation figures. It remains uncertain when the Federal Reserve will implement the projected interest rate reductions for the remainder of the year.
Is the Bitcoin Cycle Top Already Achieved?
As a crypto investor, I’ve witnessed the Bitcoin price soaring to an all-time high of approximately $74,000 last month. Since then, it seems we’ve entered a correction phase. According to seasoned trader Peter Brandt’s analysis, Bitcoin’s upward trend is following an exponential decay pattern, meaning returns are diminishing with each price increase.
Based on an examination of past trends, Brandt posited that the peak price for the leading cryptocurrency might have already surpassed $70,000, as indicated by the exponential decay pattern in the data.
As a researcher, I’ve come across Brandt’s observation that the exponential decay has a 25% likelihood of achieving success. However, it’s important to note that Bitcoin’s price is influenced by various other elements beyond this single factor. For instance, I’ve seen significant strides being made in the mainstream adoption of digital assets and web3 protocols. These developments have a considerable impact on Bitcoin’s price dynamics.
Previously reported by Coinspeaker, the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in Hong Kong is scheduled for April 30. This development will augment the demand from US investors who have been actively purchasing Bitcoin through ETFs.
Based on his analysis, Brandt expressed optimism that Bitcoin’s price could surge past $100,000 within the next few months.
A similar stance was issued by Giovanni Santostasi, a popular Bitcoin trader and investor with a Ph.D in Astrophysics. According to Giovanni, Bitcoin price will rally as much as $210k by the end of 2025 and subsequently drop as low as $83k. Notably, Giovanni’s prediction entailed several scientific methods using the past few bull cycles after every Bitcoin halving.
As an analyst, I assigned a 25% probability to my current assessment. However, I place greater trust in the findings from my report published in February. For your reference, please find attached a chart derived from that analysis, which suggests a prolonged bull market extending until September or October 2025.
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) April 29, 2024
What Next
With Bitcoin’s price decline persisting a week after its fourth halving, short-term investors have been shifting their focus towards the altcoin sector. The Ethereum-to-Bitcoin pair, often used as a benchmark for assessing the broader crypto market, suggests an upcoming altcoin season based on its recent recovery of over 4%. This ratio was at approximately 0.0507 on Monday.
As I said 10 days ago:
As a researcher studying the behavior of cryptocurrency markets, I anticipate that both Ethereum (#ETH) and Bitcoin (#BTC) may encounter rejection when reaching the resistance level within their weekly close price bands, specifically around 0.053-0.054.
As an analyst, I’ve observed that this recent pump in the market bears a striking resemblance to the one we saw prior to the rate cuts during the last economic cycle. This occurred right before the summer season when investors typically display a high level of uncertainty and fear, leading to market capitulation.
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) April 28, 2024
Currently, well-known cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen advises investors to stay alert for potential altcoin market crashes in the upcoming months, followed by a recovery.
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2024-04-29 14:27