As a researcher with a background in traditional finance and crypto markets, I find Ted’s analysis intriguing and well-supported by the data. His use of historical liquidity cycles, M2 money supply, crypto market liquidity, and spot Bitcoin ETF flows provides a comprehensive outlook on the current state and future potential of the Bitcoin market.
Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Ted, as expressed in a recent post on X, presents a persuasive case that the ongoing Bitcoin bull market still has significant momentum. His perspective is grounded in four key factors drawn from traditional finance and crypto markets, each suggesting continued expansion in the immediate term. Let’s examine Ted’s reasoning:
#1 65-Month Liquidity Cycle
Ted draws attention to the 65-month trend in financial markets, which reflects the recurring fluctuations in market liquidity. Based on his findings, this pattern reached its lowest point in October 2023, indicating the commencement of an upswing or a new growth cycle.
“Ted mentioned that we’re currently experiencing an expansion phase, which is predicted to reach its peak around 2026. This forecast aligns with the anticipated easing actions by central banks due to decelerating economic indicators over the next 18 to 24 months. Historically, such monetary loosening has signaled the beginning of bull markets in various financial arenas, including Bitcoin and the crypto market.”
#2 M2 Money Supply
As a researcher studying global economic trends, I cannot overlook the significance of the M2 money supply in assessing liquidity levels around the world. The M2 supply, comprising cash, checking deposits, and near money that can be quickly converted into cash, is a vital indicator in this regard. Notably, the current expansion rate of the M2 money supply is at its lowest point since the 1990s.
As a researcher studying the impact of central bank actions on financial markets, I can tell you that there exists significant potential for further improvement in monetary conditions. Central banks’ moves to loosen monetary policies aim to spur economic activity. Consequently, an expansion in M2 money supply could result in increased capital inflows towards riskier assets such as Bitcoin.
#3 Crypto Liquidity
As an analyst, I’ve noticed that while liquidity has resurfaced in the crypto markets following the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the pace of inflows hasn’t quite reached the frenzied levels observed during previous market peaks. In simpler terms, the rate at which new funds are entering the market isn’t yet exhibiting the intensity characteristic of past cycle tops.
As an analyst, I would interpret this situation as follows: The increasing fascination and financial commitment towards Bitcoin indicate a growing market interest. However, the current market conditions do not exhibit the extreme exuberance that usually precedes a significant market correction. This stage of controlled investment influx lays a stronger groundwork for further price advancements.
US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced substantial investment, with approximately $950 million being poured into these funds last week – the largest weekly influx since March. According to Ted’s analysis, this trend is likely to continue as Bitcoin’s value increases and traditional financial investors become more comfortable with the asset.
He pointed out that these trends are likely to gain momentum as Bitcoin’s price continues climbing, with traditional finance institutions showing renewed interest through ETF investments. This is a robust sign of Bitcoin’s ongoing upward trajectory.
Each factor contributes strongly to the prolonged and powerful upward trend in Bitcoin’s market. Ted’s insightful analysis, based on both conventional financial signals and crypto-centric data, offers a thorough perspective on Bitcoin’s present situation and future prospects. With central banks considering loosening monetary policies and institutional investment continuing to surge, the ground seems favorable for an extended Bitcoin bull market that could last for several years.
At press time, BTC traded at $66,602.
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2024-05-20 11:28